Analysts Anticipate Further Drop in Nigeria’s Inflation Rate

Nigeria is poised to release its keenly awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October later today, November 17, 2025. This highly anticipated economic indicator is expected to confirm a continuation of the disinflationary trend that has characterized the Nigerian economy for the past six months, according to leading financial analysts.

The upcoming report follows encouraging data from September, which showed that the country’s headline inflation rate successfully dropped for the sixth consecutive time, settling at 18.02 per cent, a significant reduction from the 20.12 per cent recorded in August. This steady decline has been welcomed by policymakers who have struggled to manage price stability amid foreign exchange volatility.

A critical component of this trend is the price of food, which has also been moderating. Food inflation declined to 16.9 per cent in September, a decrease largely attributed to two major factors: the boost in local supply resulting from the ongoing harvest season across the agricultural belts and, to a lesser extent, improved food imports. This reduction in the cost of essential staples offers a direct, tangible relief to the average Nigerian household.

Financial modelling conducted by Cowry Asset Management projects that the positive momentum will carry into the October figures, with the firm anticipating that the headline inflation rate will further ease to 17.83 per cent. This forecast is based on an analysis of several supporting factors crucial to price stability. The analysts cite “continued naira stability, improved FX liquidity, and sustained food supply from the ongoing harvest season” as the primary drivers underpinning the expected moderation. The stable performance of the Naira in the official foreign exchange market is particularly vital, as a steady currency reduces the imported inflation that often pushes up the prices of goods.

It is worth noting that the consistent moderation in the country’s inflation rate has already had a tangible impact on monetary policy. Recognizing the positive shift in price pressures, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently concluded its 302nd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting with a pivotal decision: a substantial cut to the benchmark interest rate, bringing it down to 27 per cent. This move by the CBN signals confidence in the sustainability of the disinflationary path and marks a strategic shift from aggressive monetary tightening toward policies that may stimulate lending and support broader economic growth. The market is now looking to the official data release today to validate the projections and potentially provide further justification for the CBN’s recent pivot.