Inflation in Nigeria has continued to ease, reaching a five-year low of 15.06% in February 2026, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This data, released this week and analyzed by economic experts today, March 21, 2026, marks the 11th consecutive month of declining inflation. The Guardian reports that this downward trend is a significant relief from the 26% peaks seen in early 2025, suggesting that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) aggressive monetary tightening and the stabilization of the Naira are finally yielding results. However, the report also contains a sobering warning: while headline inflation is falling, food inflation has surged back to double digits, hitting 12.12% due to persistent supply chain disruptions and seasonal factors.
The NBS report indicates that the “base effect” and a new revised methodology for calculating inflation have helped in presenting a more accurate picture of the economic reality. Food items such as beans, yam flour, and rice have seen the highest price increases month-on-month, particularly in states like Kogi and Anambra. Daily Trust reports that market traders in Abuja and Lagos are still lamenting the high cost of transportation, which remains the primary driver of food prices despite the overall drop in the inflation rate. The government’s decision to allow direct imports of certain staples has yet to fully saturate the local markets, leading to a “disconnect” between the official statistics and the experience of the average Nigerian shopper.
Economic analysts on Arise TV’s “Morning Brief” noted that for the inflation rate to maintain this downward trajectory toward the single-digit target of 9% by 2027, the government must address the “structural bottlenecks” in the agricultural sector. These include the high cost of fertilizers, the lack of modern storage facilities, and the ongoing security challenges that prevent farmers from accessing their fields in the Middle Belt. Gopedia Media’s analysis suggests that the current 15.06% rate provides the CBN with room to consider a slight interest rate cut in the next quarter to stimulate private sector lending. This would be a welcome development for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) that have struggled with high borrowing costs for the past two years. As the nation prepares for the Q2 2026 economic outlook, the focus will remain on whether the government can convert these positive statistics into tangible “stomach infrastructure” for the millions of citizens still struggling with the high cost of living.